Player stats

Batting Average Minus Expected 2026

Recorded batting average minus the estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means the actual result was higher. This does not measure luck alone. MLBDB estimates describe recorded contact, not future performance.

Season

At least 100 balls with recorded speed and angle. MLBDB estimates from recorded ball speed and angle. Every contact contribution needed by the statistic must be available. Missing or unsupported inputs remain N/A. These describe recorded contact, not future performance. Data through September 27, 2026. Data refreshed Oct 11, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC.

No. 1 / Batting Average Minus Expected / 2026

Nick Allen

HOU

0.066

Season leader

Batting Average Minus Expected2026 season
#	Player	Team	Model balls	Measured%	AVG − MLBDB xBA
1	N. AllenNick Allen	HOU	119	100.0%	0.066
2	S. TaylorSamad Taylor	SD	111	100.0%	0.059
3	T. TolbertTyler Tolbert	KC	104	100.0%	0.046
4	E. RuizEsteury Ruiz	MIA	134	100.0%	0.043
5	J. DeLucaJonny DeLuca	TB	275	100.0%	0.040
6	A. VaughnAndrew Vaughn	MIL	237	100.0%	0.038
7	J. McCannJames McCann	AZ	117	100.0%	0.038
8	T. TaylorTyrone Taylor	CHC	184	100.0%	0.035
9	M. AmayaMiguel Amaya	CHC	152	100.0%	0.032
10	E. ValdezEsmerlyn Valdez	PIT	136	100.0%	0.032
11	H. RodríguezHéctor Rodríguez	CIN	105	100.0%	0.031
12	J. BarrosaJorge Barrosa	HOU	109	100.0%	0.030
13	J. OrtizJoey Ortiz	MIL	298	100.0%	0.029
14	H. LeeHao-Yu Lee	DET	247	100.0%	0.029
15	T. StoryTrevor Story	BOS	167	100.0%	0.028
16	M. MoniakMickey Moniak	COL	291	100.0%	0.028
17	C. Encarnacion-StrandChristian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	143	100.0%	0.028
18	K. RuizKeibert Ruiz	WSH	298	100.0%	0.027
19	J. FoscueJustin Foscue	TEX	164	100.0%	0.027
20	A. ChaparroAndrés Chaparro	WSH	145	100.0%	0.025
21	S. SuzukiSeiya Suzuki	CHC	393	100.0%	0.024
22	V. RoblesVictor Robles	SEA	115	100.0%	0.020
23	P. RamírezPedro Ramírez	CHC	195	100.0%	0.020
24	L. ArraezLuis Arraez	PHI	588	100.0%	0.020
25	B. LoweBrandon Lowe	PIT	402	100.0%	0.019
26	D. HernaizDarell Hernaiz	ATH	109	100.0%	0.018
27	J. YoungJared Young	NYM	248	100.0%	0.018
28	A. HedgesAustin Hedges	CLE	176	100.0%	0.018
29	R. Flores Jr.Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	103	100.0%	0.018
30	R. GreeneRiley Greene	DET	359	100.0%	0.017
31	G. PauleyGraham Pauley	MIA	108	100.0%	0.017
32	D. HarrisDustin Harris	SD	118	100.0%	0.017
33	R. O'HearnRyan O'Hearn	PIT	311	100.0%	0.016
34	D. JansenDanny Jansen	TEX	146	100.0%	0.016
35	N. LukesNathan Lukes	TOR	354	100.0%	0.016
36	S. HorwitzSpencer Horwitz	PIT	317	100.0%	0.015
37	B. LeeBrooks Lee	MIN	488	100.0%	0.015
38	M. MasseyMichael Massey	KC	356	100.0%	0.015
39	D. WaltonDonovan Walton	ATH	187	100.0%	0.015
40	K. McGonigleKevin McGonigle	DET	509	100.0%	0.014
41	P. GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt	NYY	262	100.0%	0.014
42	J. PeñaJeremy Peña	HOU	334	100.0%	0.014
43	C. WongConnor Wong	BOS	158	100.0%	0.014
44	M. MuncyMax Muncy	ATH	168	100.0%	0.013
45	L. O'HoppeLogan O'Hoppe	TEX	187	100.0%	0.013
46	J. JungJosh Jung	TEX	321	100.0%	0.012
47	G. SpringerGeorge Springer	TOR	369	100.0%	0.012
48	A. FreelandAlex Freeland	LAD	162	100.0%	0.012
49	J. FernandezJose Fernandez	AZ	158	100.0%	0.012
50	C. KellyCarson Kelly	CHC	310	100.0%	0.011

AVG − MLBDB xBA: Recorded batting average minus the estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means the actual result was higher. This does not measure luck alone. MLBDB estimates describe recorded contact, not future performance.

Understanding Batting Average Minus Expected

Read rates alongside playing time. A small sample can produce an extreme result, and a missing value is different from zero.

Season rankings use regular-season records. A player has one combined row across teams; the team label identifies the associated team, not a separate team stint.

Source: MLB statistics and MLBDB derived measures. Formulas describe the measure above. Data refreshed Oct 11, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC.