Player stats

ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate 2025

Recorded ERA minus MLBDB's estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means more earned runs were recorded than estimated. This does not measure luck alone. N/A when no pitching outs were recorded, the estimate is unavailable, or the saved game totals disagree with the latest totals.

Season

At least 100 balls with recorded speed and angle. MLBDB estimates from recorded ball speed and angle. Every contact contribution needed by the statistic must be available. Missing or unsupported inputs remain N/A. These describe recorded contact, not future performance. Data through December 31, 2025. Data refreshed Sep 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC.

No. 1 / ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate / 2025

Jordan Romano

PHI

4.15

Season leader

ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate2025 season
#	Player	Team	IP	Model balls	Measured%	ERA − MLBDB xERA
1	J. RomanoJordan Romano	PHI	42.2	120	100.0%	4.15
2	C. PalmquistCarson Palmquist	COL	34.1	120	100.0%	2.62
3	J. HicksJordan Hicks	BOS	67.1	215	100.0%	2.34
4	K. HartKyle Hart	SD	43.0	127	100.0%	2.16
5	C. RagansCole Ragans	KC	61.2	137	100.0%	2.00
6	A. NolaAaron Nola	PHI	94.1	275	100.0%	1.90
7	T. HouckTanner Houck	BOS	43.2	149	100.0%	1.89
8	B. YoungBrandon Young	BAL	57.2	187	100.0%	1.86
9	G. GraceffoGordon Graceffo	STL	43.0	138	100.0%	1.86
10	G. CabreraGénesis Cabrera	MIN	42.2	132	100.0%	1.85
11	C. LeguminaCasey Legumina	SEA	49.2	137	100.0%	1.82
12	Y. DarvishYu Darvish	SD	72.0	203	100.0%	1.76
13	D. WilliamsDevin Williams	NYY	62.0	140	100.0%	1.73
14	C. BrogdonConnor Brogdon	LAA	47.0	132	100.0%	1.70
15	J. AlcalaJorge Alcala	STL	55.0	165	100.0%	1.69
16	J. BirdJake Bird	NYY	55.1	154	100.0%	1.67
17	S. ManaeaSean Manaea	NYM	60.2	169	100.0%	1.65
18	A. ChivilliAngel Chivilli	COL	58.2	203	100.0%	1.63
19	S. OgasawaraShinnosuke Ogasawara	WSH	38.2	123	100.0%	1.59
20	A. GomberAustin Gomber	COL	57.2	220	100.0%	1.54
21	K. OrtKaleb Ort	HOU	46.0	116	100.0%	1.47
22	Y. CanoYennier Cano	BAL	58.0	170	100.0%	1.44
23	Z. EflinZach Eflin	BAL	71.1	244	100.0%	1.40
24	J. WoodfordJake Woodford	AZ	36.1	131	100.0%	1.40
25	C. DollanderChase Dollander	COL	98.0	304	100.0%	1.40
26	S. DubinShawn Dubin	BAL	33.2	104	100.0%	1.35
27	C. JavierCristian Javier	HOU	37.0	107	100.0%	1.25
28	M. FluhartyMason Fluharty	TOR	52.2	133	100.0%	1.18
29	M. AbelMick Abel	MIN	39.0	118	100.0%	1.18
30	L. McCullers Jr.Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	55.1	166	100.0%	1.16
31	Z. KellyZack Kelly	BOS	35.1	102	100.0%	1.14
32	C. BurnsChase Burns	CIN	43.1	105	100.0%	1.11
33	K. YatesKirby Yates	LAD	41.1	108	100.0%	1.11
34	J. WentzJoey Wentz	ATL	98.0	306	100.0%	1.10
35	G. SorianoGeorge Soriano	MIA	36.2	115	100.0%	1.02
36	B. WoodruffBrandon Woodruff	MIL	64.2	156	100.0%	1.01
37	S. BazShane Baz	TB	166.1	462	100.0%	1.01
38	T. HatchThomas Hatch	MIN	34.0	113	100.0%	1.01
39	M. SorokaMichael Soroka	CHC	89.2	240	100.0%	0.97
40	A. DeSclafaniAnthony DeSclafani	AZ	38.2	116	100.0%	0.96
41	T. FergusonTyler Ferguson	ATH	58.0	154	100.0%	0.95
42	B. CaspariusBen Casparius	LAD	77.2	238	100.0%	0.94
43	G. MárquezGermán Márquez	COL	126.1	452	100.0%	0.90
44	R. BlancoRonel Blanco	HOU	48.1	131	100.0%	0.89
45	J. SearsJP Sears	SD	135.2	424	100.0%	0.89
46	J. WrobleskiJustin Wrobleski	LAD	66.2	183	99.5%	0.88
47	Z. MatthewsZebby Matthews	MIN	79.1	242	100.0%	0.86
48	R. StanekRyne Stanek	NYM	56.0	165	100.0%	0.85
49	K. HendricksKyle Hendricks	LAA	164.2	533	100.0%	0.84
50	B. OberBailey Ober	MIN	146.1	468	100.0%	0.75

ERA − MLBDB xERA: Recorded ERA minus MLBDB's estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means more earned runs were recorded than estimated. This does not measure luck alone. N/A when no pitching outs were recorded, the estimate is unavailable, or the saved game totals disagree with the latest totals.

Understanding ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate

Read rates alongside playing time. A small sample can produce an extreme result, and a missing value is different from zero.

Season rankings use regular-season records. A player has one combined row across teams; the team label identifies the associated team, not a separate team stint.

Source: MLB statistics and MLBDB derived measures. Formulas describe the measure above. Data refreshed Sep 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC.