Player stats

ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate 2026

Recorded ERA minus MLBDB's estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means more earned runs were recorded than estimated. This does not measure luck alone. N/A when no pitching outs were recorded, the estimate is unavailable, or the saved game totals disagree with the latest totals.

Season

At least 100 balls with recorded speed and angle. MLBDB estimates from recorded ball speed and angle. Every contact contribution needed by the statistic must be available. Missing or unsupported inputs remain N/A. These describe recorded contact, not future performance. Data through September 27, 2026. Data refreshed Oct 11, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC.

No. 1 / ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate / 2026

Matt Strahm

3.16

Season leader

ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate2026 season
#	Player	Team	IP	Model balls	Measured%	ERA − MLBDB xERA
1	M. StrahmMatt Strahm	KC	35.2	115	100.0%	3.16
2	M. WaldronMatt Waldron	WSH	42.2	148	100.0%	3.00
3	B. BassoBrady Basso	ATH	43.0	158	100.0%	2.13
4	K. SengaKodai Senga	NYM	61.1	163	100.0%	1.97
5	M. BarnettMason Barnett	ATH	50.0	147	100.0%	1.95
6	L. McCullers Jr.Lance McCullers Jr.	MIL	44.0	118	100.0%	1.94
7	C. GibsonCade Gibson	MIA	50.1	150	100.0%	1.93
8	T. ZuberTyler Zuber	MIA	39.2	120	100.0%	1.88
9	R. AhlstromRobby Ahlstrom	TEX	37.0	111	100.0%	1.80
10	B. EisertBrandon Eisert	PIT	44.0	125	100.0%	1.78
11	M. RuckerMichael Rucker	SEA	43.2	117	100.0%	1.71
12	D. SandlinDavid Sandlin	CWS	40.1	113	100.0%	1.62
13	J. WoodfordJake Woodford	TB	27.2	101	100.0%	1.61
14	M. ScherzerMax Scherzer	TOR	84.2	259	100.0%	1.55
15	E. De Los SantosEnyel De Los Santos	HOU	71.1	213	100.0%	1.44
16	M. ParkerMitchell Parker	WSH	39.2	129	100.0%	1.40
17	P. SchultzPaxton Schultz	WSH	32.1	107	100.0%	1.36
18	A. LangeAlex Lange	KC	60.0	176	100.0%	1.33
19	J. HillJaden Hill	COL	39.2	114	100.0%	1.32
20	M. SvansonMatt Svanson	STL	43.1	143	100.0%	1.27
21	J. HergetJimmy Herget	COL	53.2	161	100.0%	1.24
22	D. WilliamsDevin Williams	NYM	40.2	111	100.0%	1.18
23	A. MorrisAndrew Morris	MIN	73.2	222	100.0%	1.11
24	J. BirdJake Bird	WSH	38.2	113	100.0%	1.06
25	E. SheehanEmmet Sheehan	LAD	112.1	299	100.0%	1.03
26	G. CanningGriffin Canning	SD	88.2	257	100.0%	1.02
27	R. MarinaccioRon Marinaccio	CIN	57.2	178	100.0%	1.00
28	L. ErcegLucas Erceg	KC	48.1	156	100.0%	0.97
29	J. LawrenceJustin Lawrence	WSH	34.1	100	100.0%	0.93
30	D. SantanaDennis Santana	AZ	56.2	173	100.0%	0.86
31	J. deGromJacob deGrom	TEX	162.2	418	100.0%	0.74
32	W. DotelWilber Dotel	PIT	42.1	125	100.0%	0.69
33	S. Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson	TOR	66.0	224	100.0%	0.69
34	T. GlasnowTyler Glasnow	LAD	74.0	164	100.0%	0.68
35	R. FeltnerRyan Feltner	COL	123.1	401	100.0%	0.68
36	I. SeymourIan Seymour	TB	132.2	352	100.0%	0.66
37	K. GinkelKevin Ginkel	AZ	67.2	185	100.0%	0.65
38	M. BrattMitch Bratt	AZ	44.0	136	100.0%	0.60
39	G. SotoGregory Soto	PIT	67.0	169	100.0%	0.59
40	G. CleavingerGarrett Cleavinger	TB	41.1	103	100.0%	0.59
41	J. JonesJared Jones	PIT	101.2	258	100.0%	0.58
42	D. KremerDean Kremer	MIN	90.1	248	100.0%	0.58
43	P. SewaldPaul Sewald	TOR	53.1	149	100.0%	0.57
44	P. SkenesPaul Skenes	PIT	174.1	451	100.0%	0.55
45	B. HudsonBryan Hudson	CWS	67.1	200	100.0%	0.54
46	C. WhisenhuntCarson Whisenhunt	SF	34.2	116	100.0%	0.54
47	C. MizeCasey Mize	SD	131.1	398	100.0%	0.50
48	J. KentJackson Kent	WSH	36.1	115	100.0%	0.50
49	S. MatzSteven Matz	TB	80.1	254	100.0%	0.49
50	E. HenriquezEdgardo Henriquez	LAD	60.0	140	100.0%	0.47

ERA − MLBDB xERA: Recorded ERA minus MLBDB's estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means more earned runs were recorded than estimated. This does not measure luck alone. N/A when no pitching outs were recorded, the estimate is unavailable, or the saved game totals disagree with the latest totals.

Understanding ERA Minus MLBDB Estimate

Read rates alongside playing time. A small sample can produce an extreme result, and a missing value is different from zero.

Season rankings use regular-season records. A player has one combined row across teams; the team label identifies the associated team, not a separate team stint.

Source: MLB statistics and MLBDB derived measures. Formulas describe the measure above. Data refreshed Oct 11, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC.