Player stats

Batting Average Minus Expected 2021

Recorded batting average minus the estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means the actual result was higher. This does not measure luck alone. MLBDB estimates describe recorded contact, not future performance.

Season

At least 100 balls with recorded speed and angle. MLBDB estimates from recorded ball speed and angle. Every contact contribution needed by the statistic must be available. Missing or unsupported inputs remain N/A. These describe recorded contact, not future performance. Data through December 31, 2021. Data refreshed Sep 13, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC.

No. 1 / Batting Average Minus Expected / 2021

Yuli Gurriel

HOU

0.050

Season leader

Batting Average Minus Expected2021 season
#	Player	Team	Model balls	Measured%	AVG − MLBDB xBA
1	Y. GurrielYuli Gurriel	HOU	474	100.0%	0.050
2	B. De La CruzBryan De La Cruz	MIA	147	100.0%	0.047
3	B. CrawfordBrandon Crawford	SF	383	100.0%	0.046
4	H. BaderHarrison Bader	STL	284	100.0%	0.046
5	N. MadrigalNick Madrigal	CWS	184	100.0%	0.045
6	S. EspinalSantiago Espinal	TOR	193	100.0%	0.044
7	S. MarteStarling Marte	OAK	371	100.0%	0.044
8	J. DavisJ.D. Davis	NYM	113	100.0%	0.041
9	W. MyersWil Myers	SD	305	100.0%	0.041
10	M. BeatyMatt Beaty	LAD	160	100.0%	0.040
11	B. AndersonBrian Anderson	MIA	168	100.0%	0.039
12	A. BaddooAkil Baddoo	DET	294	100.0%	0.038
13	T. JankowskiTravis Jankowski	PHI	104	100.0%	0.038
14	B. BeltBrandon Belt	SF	223	100.0%	0.036
15	C. McCormickChas McCormick	HOU	187	100.0%	0.036
16	C. ArroyoChristian Arroyo	BOS	121	100.0%	0.034
17	F. MejíaFrancisco Mejía	TB	204	100.0%	0.033
18	N. LoweNathaniel Lowe	TEX	398	100.0%	0.032
19	N. HoernerNico Hoerner	CHC	125	100.0%	0.031
20	W. AdamesWilly Adames	MIL	342	100.0%	0.031
21	B. PhillipsBrett Phillips	TB	144	100.0%	0.031
22	C. MullinsCedric Mullins	BAL	482	100.0%	0.030
23	O. NarváezOmar Narváez	MIL	313	100.0%	0.030
24	K. PlaweckiKevin Plawecki	BOS	132	100.0%	0.029
25	M. SchrockMax Schrock	CIN	102	100.0%	0.028
26	C. DickersonCorey Dickerson	TOR	269	100.0%	0.028
27	Y. HernandezYadiel Hernandez	WSH	207	100.0%	0.027
28	A. GarcíaAdolis García	TEX	391	100.0%	0.027
29	J. MarisnickJake Marisnick	SD	115	100.0%	0.027
30	L. GuillormeLuis Guillorme	NYM	110	100.0%	0.026
31	Y. TsutsugoYoshi Tsutsugo	PIT	160	100.0%	0.026
32	B. PoseyBuster Posey	SF	310	100.0%	0.025
33	Y. MercedesYermín Mercedes	CWS	195	100.0%	0.025
34	N. CastellanosNick Castellanos	CIN	416	100.0%	0.024
35	K. WongKolten Wong	MIL	365	100.0%	0.024
36	C. TaylorChris Taylor	LAD	344	100.0%	0.024
37	B. GamelBen Gamel	PIT	241	100.0%	0.024
38	J. FuentesJoshua Fuentes	COL	207	100.0%	0.024
39	K. MarteKetel Marte	AZ	281	100.0%	0.022
40	A. EscobarAlcides Escobar	WSH	267	100.0%	0.022
41	F. GalvisFreddy Galvis	PHI	284	100.0%	0.022
42	J. AltuveJose Altuve	HOU	517	100.0%	0.021
43	A. BenintendiAndrew Benintendi	KC	403	100.0%	0.021
44	G. SpringerGeorge Springer	TOR	221	100.0%	0.021
45	J. LuplowJordan Luplow	TB	106	100.0%	0.021
46	M. DuffyMatt Duffy	CHC	227	100.0%	0.020
47	G. CooperGarrett Cooper	MIA	148	100.0%	0.020
48	W. MerrifieldWhit Merrifield	KC	573	100.0%	0.020
49	B. BuxtonByron Buxton	MIN	173	100.0%	0.019
50	C. SeagerCorey Seager	LAD	290	100.0%	0.019

AVG − MLBDB xBA: Recorded batting average minus the estimate, using the same completed games. A positive number means the actual result was higher. This does not measure luck alone. MLBDB estimates describe recorded contact, not future performance.

Understanding Batting Average Minus Expected

Read rates alongside playing time. A small sample can produce an extreme result, and a missing value is different from zero.

Season rankings use regular-season records. A player has one combined row across teams; the team label identifies the associated team, not a separate team stint.

Source: MLB statistics and MLBDB derived measures. Formulas describe the measure above. Data refreshed Sep 13, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC.